Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 74.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 52.2%
Neutral zone
Johansen 58.7%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Johansen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
20
(34 meetings)
14
20
Johansen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Johansen 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
8
2
Johansen
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
13
Johansen
O'Reilly
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Johansen
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (1,010)
56.6% (1,064)
-7.2%
Power Play
62.3% (236)
60.4% (260)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
67.2% (67)
54.0% (261)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Johansen is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Johansen shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Johansen
O'Reilly
Home
54.7% (655)
54.9% (801)
Away
50.6% (658)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Johansen
O'Reilly
P1
52.2%
58.0%
P2
50.7%
56.7%
P3
54.8%
55.4%
OT
53.6%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.0%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 12:59 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 15:16 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 06:16 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:30 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:23 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 05:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |