Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 53.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.8% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 78.9%
Neutral zone
Johansen 55.9%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Johansen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Johansen
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Johansen
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Johansen
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (597)
55.0% (1,084)
-3.1%
Power Play
57.9% (133)
56.8% (303)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (81)
40.3% (149)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Johansen shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Johansen
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (387)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.7% (424)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Johansen
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
55.3%
P2
56.2%
51.9%
P3
52.6%
54.2%
OT
75.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 03:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |