Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs McLeod 50.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 80.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Duchene
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Duchene
McLeod
Last 6: Duchene 5-1 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
51.3% (628)
+5.2%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
68.3% (41)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
30.6% (49)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Duchene
McLeod
Home
56.6% (318)
51.5% (394)
Away
56.4% (319)
50.0% (324)
By Period
Duchene
McLeod
P1
57.2%
51.5%
P2
55.1%
47.0%
P3
55.6%
54.3%
OT
81.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |