Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Frost wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs McLeod 47.5% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 97.7%
Defensive zone
Frost 73.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 88.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 90.9%
90.9%
9.1%
Frost
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Frost
McLeod
Last 10: Frost 8-2 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
5
1
Frost
McLeod
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (686)
48.9% (784)
+6.1%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
44.0% (84)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
43.5% (260)
+56.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +56.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Frost is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Frost shoots left. McLeod is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (730).
Home / Away
Frost
McLeod
Home
56.1% (428)
49.2% (575)
Away
56.6% (429)
45.2% (553)
By Period
Frost
McLeod
P1
58.9%
52.6%
P2
55.4%
44.7%
P3
54.1%
45.3%
OT
70.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
51.7%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
McLeod
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:53 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |