Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McLeod wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.5% vs Carrick 53.7% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 73.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 70.3%
Neutral zone
McLeod 68.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
McLeod
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McLeod
Carrick
Last 7: McLeod 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
McLeod
Carrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
McLeod
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (784)
54.9% (428)
-6.0%
Power Play
44.0% (84)
66.7% (3)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (260)
50.0% (50)
-6.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
McLeod shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
McLeod
Carrick
Home
49.2% (575)
58.2% (225)
Away
45.2% (553)
51.2% (256)
By Period
McLeod
Carrick
P1
52.6%
55.2%
P2
44.7%
52.8%
P3
45.3%
55.4%
Final 5 min
44.1%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.3%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |