Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McLeod wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.8% vs Carrick 53.8% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 72.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 67.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 65.6%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
McLeod
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McLeod
Carrick
Last 7: McLeod 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
McLeod
Carrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
McLeod
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (796)
55.1% (439)
-5.9%
Power Play
44.8% (87)
66.7% (3)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (263)
49.1% (53)
-5.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
McLeod shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
McLeod
Carrick
Home
49.2% (575)
58.2% (225)
Away
45.9% (571)
51.5% (270)
By Period
McLeod
Carrick
P1
52.8%
56.7%
P2
45.1%
52.8%
P3
45.6%
54.4%
Final 5 min
44.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |