Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McLeod wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.5% vs Stamkos 54.4% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 63.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 91.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 77.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
McLeod
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McLeod
Stamkos
Last 5: McLeod 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
McLeod
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (784)
55.8% (339)
-6.9%
Power Play
44.0% (84)
53.3% (90)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (260)
62.5% (8)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
McLeod shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
McLeod
Stamkos
Home
49.2% (575)
53.4% (208)
Away
45.2% (553)
57.2% (229)
By Period
McLeod
Stamkos
P1
52.6%
55.3%
P2
44.7%
52.5%
P3
45.3%
58.9%
OT
38.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.3%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |