Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McLeod wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.8% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 57.2%
Defensive zone
McLeod 90.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 73.8%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
McLeod
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McLeod
Stamkos
Last 5: McLeod 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
McLeod
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (796)
56.1% (342)
-6.9%
Power Play
44.8% (87)
53.3% (92)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (263)
62.5% (8)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
McLeod shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
McLeod
Stamkos
Home
49.2% (575)
53.4% (208)
Away
45.9% (571)
57.7% (234)
By Period
McLeod
Stamkos
P1
52.8%
55.6%
P2
45.1%
52.8%
P3
45.6%
59.1%
OT
35.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |