Morgan Frost vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.8% vs 45.2%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 45.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 79.2%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 63.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 62.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 8: Frost 6-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
45.4% (527)
+0.2%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
41.2% (17)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
44.9% (138)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Frost shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
47.0% (440)
46.1% (336)
Away
44.8% (511)
44.2% (346)
By Period
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
42.5%
49.1%
P2
47.9%
45.3%
P3
46.6%
42.0%
OT
66.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |