Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.2%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 50.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 52.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Horvat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
O'Reilly
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (670)
55.3% (815)
-0.1%
Power Play
61.8% (225)
58.0% (219)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (98)
49.2% (124)
-2.3%
On power play, Horvat has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horvat is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (597).
Horvat shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Horvat
O'Reilly
Home
58.1% (449)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.0% (544)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Horvat
O'Reilly
P1
59.2%
57.5%
P2
53.1%
54.7%
P3
55.8%
54.1%
OT
55.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |