Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marchand wins 32.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 45.5% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-19.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 66.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.4%
Neutral zone
Marchand 56.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Marchand
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marchand
O'Reilly
Last 5: Marchand 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchand
1
0
Marchand
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Marchand
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
30.0% (20)
56.9% (1,203)
-26.9%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
60.2% (329)
-19.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
50.4% (280)
-0.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchand is 32.4% vs left-shot opponents (37).
Marchand shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Marchand
O'Reilly
Home
26.9% (26)
58.6% (879)
Away
46.7% (30)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Marchand
O'Reilly
P1
27.8%
55.6%
P2
36.4%
57.9%
P3
46.7%
55.7%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
33.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
37.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2016 | 3 | 10:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Dec 26, 2015 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |