Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 87.5%
Defensive zone
Bedard 89.2%
Neutral zone
Bedard 86.9%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
Bedard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
14
(22 meetings)
8
14
Bedard
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bedard 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Bedard
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
Bedard
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
6
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (1,413)
56.2% (15,103)
-16.5%
Power Play
51.5% (68)
58.7% (3,395)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (22)
51.6% (2,769)
-6.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bedard is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,103).
Bedard shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,572).
Home / Away
Bedard
O'Reilly
Home
42.9% (707)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
38.1% (796)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Bedard
O'Reilly
P1
38.3%
55.5%
P2
39.8%
57.0%
P3
43.1%
55.2%
OT
38.9%
62.7%
Final 5 min
45.4%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
40.3%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |