Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Cozens
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Cozens
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cozens 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
0
Cozens
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Cozens
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
55.3% (815)
-2.7%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
58.0% (219)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
49.2% (124)
-15.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Cozens shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Cozens
O'Reilly
Home
54.1% (375)
55.8% (579)
Away
52.3% (331)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Cozens
O'Reilly
P1
55.8%
57.5%
P2
50.6%
54.7%
P3
53.7%
54.1%
OT
40.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 18:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |