Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 55.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 61.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Larkin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Larkin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
5
Larkin
O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Larkin
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Larkin
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
55.4% (826)
-3.7%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
57.9% (221)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.4% (129)
-2.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (647)
55.8% (579)
Away
52.7% (643)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
52.2%
57.7%
P2
53.1%
54.8%
P3
51.7%
54.3%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |