Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dickinson 63.8%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 94.0%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 80.1%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Dickinson 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Dickinson
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Dickinson
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Dickinson
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
55.4% (826)
-3.6%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
57.9% (221)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
50.4% (129)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Dickinson shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Home
48.7% (419)
55.8% (579)
Away
50.4% (383)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Dickinson
O'Reilly
P1
42.6%
57.7%
P2
55.0%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
54.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |