Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs O'Reilly 51.4% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 75.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Pavelski
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Pavelski
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
51.5% (194)
+4.2%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
52.3% (107)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
51.4% (70)
+0.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Home
59.2% (622)
50.3% (185)
Away
52.6% (584)
53.2% (186)
By Period
Pavelski
O'Reilly
P1
54.1%
51.0%
P2
56.4%
48.9%
P3
56.4%
53.3%
OT
65.6%
68.8%
Final 5 min
54.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 12:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 09:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 01:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 05:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2013 | OT | 01:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |