Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 49.2% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Rantanen 96.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.3%
Neutral zone
Rantanen 72.3%
Result
Mikko Rantanen favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Rantanen 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
3
1
Rantanen
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Rantanen
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Rantanen
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (334)
56.1% (690)
-5.2%
Power Play
43.7% (119)
64.6% (96)
-20.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rantanen is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (270).
Rantanen shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Home
49.4% (241)
58.3% (408)
Away
48.6% (212)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Rantanen
O'Reilly
P1
47.1%
57.7%
P2
46.7%
54.8%
P3
51.9%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
48.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
49.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 03:38 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 04:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 02:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |