Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rantanen wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 52.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rantanen 86.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 66.3%
Neutral zone
Rantanen 68.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Last 6: Rantanen 1-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Rantanen
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Rantanen
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rantanen
1
0
Rantanen
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (188)
56.2% (983)
-0.9%
Power Play
46.3% (67)
55.5% (254)
-9.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rantanen is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (172).
Rantanen shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Home
57.3% (143)
56.2% (697)
Away
47.3% (112)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Rantanen
O'Reilly
P1
47.8%
54.5%
P2
56.8%
55.5%
P3
54.5%
57.1%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
52.9%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Rantanen |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |