Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 34-17 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 86.9%
Defensive zone
Foligno 95.7%
Neutral zone
Foligno 94.0%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Foligno
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
34
(51 meetings)
17
34
Foligno
O'Reilly
Last 10: Foligno 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
15
Foligno
O'Reilly
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
9
Foligno
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
10
Foligno
O'Reilly
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,764)
56.2% (15,103)
-7.9%
Power Play
52.3% (723)
58.7% (3,395)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (447)
51.6% (2,769)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,467).
Foligno shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Foligno
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (1,993)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
47.1% (1,943)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Foligno
O'Reilly
P1
47.9%
55.5%
P2
50.0%
57.0%
P3
48.4%
55.2%
OT
29.7%
62.7%
Final 5 min
52.4%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
48.5%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OT | 04:26 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |