Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 22 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 34-18 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 85.0%
Defensive zone
Foligno 95.1%
Neutral zone
Foligno 93.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
Foligno
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
34
(52 meetings)
18
34
Foligno
O'Reilly
Last 10: Foligno 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
15
Foligno
O'Reilly
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
9
Foligno
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
10
Foligno
O'Reilly
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,810)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.9%
Power Play
52.3% (730)
58.8% (3,445)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (455)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Foligno shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Foligno
O'Reilly
Home
49.9% (2,013)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.2% (1,984)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Foligno
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
55.6%
P2
50.4%
57.0%
P3
48.3%
55.1%
OT
29.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
52.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OT | 04:26 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |