Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 41.2% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 74.2%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 52.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 76.9%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Last 5: Schmaltz 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
39.5% (658)
60.3% (1,517)
-20.8%
Power Play
41.3% (92)
61.5% (387)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (51)
55.0% (220)
-9.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
40.8% (424)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
39.3% (377)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
38.4%
56.8%
P2
40.7%
64.6%
P3
41.0%
58.5%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 18:04 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 15:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 8, 2017 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |