Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hartman wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 44.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 76.0%
Defensive zone
Hartman 82.9%
Neutral zone
Hartman 77.6%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Hartman
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Hartman
O'Reilly
Last 6: Hartman 0-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Hartman
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Hartman
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (495)
56.1% (690)
-13.5%
Power Play
38.5% (26)
64.6% (96)
-26.1%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (43)
45.9% (109)
+2.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hartman is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (406).
Hartman shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Hartman
O'Reilly
Home
43.4% (288)
58.3% (408)
Away
42.4% (276)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Hartman
O'Reilly
P1
43.1%
57.7%
P2
43.4%
54.8%
P3
42.0%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
42.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |