Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Lafferty 50.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 52.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Last 6: O'Reilly 4-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Lafferty
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
O'Reilly
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
52.2% (366)
+3.9%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
60.0% (15)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
46.2% (104)
-0.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
O'Reilly shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Home
58.3% (408)
53.1% (258)
Away
53.6% (487)
48.9% (227)
By Period
O'Reilly
Lafferty
P1
57.7%
52.5%
P2
54.8%
49.7%
P3
55.2%
51.3%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 06:08 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |