Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Lafferty 50.4% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 80.6%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 58.4%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 80.6%
19.4%
80.6%
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
O'Reilly
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
50.7% (144)
+5.5%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
50.0% (2)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
50.0% (10)
+2.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Lafferty is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Home
56.2% (697)
53.2% (62)
Away
55.1% (642)
48.9% (94)
By Period
O'Reilly
Lafferty
P1
54.5%
53.3%
P2
55.5%
46.7%
P3
57.1%
52.8%
Final 5 min
56.2%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |