Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.5% vs Steel 49.4% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 75.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
O'Reilly
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
O'Reilly
Steel
Last 9: O'Reilly 6-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (1,367)
49.5% (204)
+7.6%
Power Play
59.4% (286)
57.1% (7)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (257)
33.3% (9)
+19.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
O'Reilly shoots left. Steel is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Steel
Home
59.2% (936)
53.2% (77)
Away
54.6% (974)
46.9% (143)
By Period
O'Reilly
Steel
P1
57.3%
45.5%
P2
57.5%
49.4%
P3
55.0%
52.5%
OT
71.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 06:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |