Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Steel 50.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 24-15 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 88.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 92.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
O'Reilly
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
15
(39 meetings)
24
15
O'Reilly
Steel
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
4
O'Reilly
Steel
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
4
O'Reilly
Steel
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
7
O'Reilly
Steel
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
50.6% (2,876)
+5.6%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
62.6% (179)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
37.4% (254)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Steel
Home
57.6% (10,762)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
O'Reilly
Steel
P1
55.6%
51.9%
P2
57.0%
49.5%
P3
55.1%
49.6%
OT
62.2%
41.9%
Final 5 min
55.3%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:49 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2021 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |