Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 58.1% vs Steel 52.3% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 80.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
O'Reilly
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
O'Reilly
Steel
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Steel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Steel
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (841)
51.6% (401)
+7.0%
Power Play
59.9% (207)
66.7% (39)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (148)
44.4% (9)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
O'Reilly shoots left. Steel is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Steel
Home
59.8% (594)
55.8% (206)
Away
57.8% (602)
50.2% (243)
By Period
O'Reilly
Steel
P1
61.7%
57.0%
P2
56.2%
50.7%
P3
59.5%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2021 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:23 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 02:06 | Neutral | Sam Steel |