Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 56.1%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Couturier 55.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.6%
Defensive zone
Couturier 61.9%
Neutral zone
Couturier 55.0%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
O'Reilly
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
O'Reilly
Couturier
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
O'Reilly
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Couturier
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Couturier
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
55.1% (1,008)
+1.1%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
64.1% (142)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
53.3% (45)
-1.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Couturier is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Couturier
Home
56.2% (697)
58.1% (609)
Away
55.1% (642)
53.9% (586)
By Period
O'Reilly
Couturier
P1
54.5%
55.3%
P2
55.5%
55.8%
P3
57.1%
57.4%
OT
50.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 12:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | OT | 02:21 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:58 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |