Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Couturier 53.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.9%
Defensive zone
Couturier 65.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
O'Reilly
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
O'Reilly
Couturier
Last 6: O'Reilly 4-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Couturier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
53.4% (758)
+2.0%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
62.9% (70)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
50.7% (227)
-0.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Couturier
Home
55.8% (579)
50.7% (517)
Away
54.9% (597)
56.1% (538)
By Period
O'Reilly
Couturier
P1
57.7%
55.2%
P2
54.8%
53.0%
P3
54.3%
53.3%
OT
50.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
55.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:16 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |