Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 34 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Johnson 49.7% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 65-31 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 91.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 96.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 95.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 94.5%
94.5%
5.5%
O'Reilly
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
65
-
31
(96 meetings)
65
31
O'Reilly
Johnson
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
23
11
O'Reilly
Johnson
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
25
9
O'Reilly
Johnson
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
17
11
O'Reilly
Johnson
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
49.8% (5,396)
+6.4%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
54.6% (885)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
42.3% (707)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnson
Home
57.6% (10,762)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnson
P1
55.6%
50.1%
P2
57.0%
50.6%
P3
55.1%
48.4%
OT
62.2%
42.5%
Final 5 min
55.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2018 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 3 | 14:23 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 09:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 10:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2017 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2017 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2017 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2017 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2017 | 1 | 09:03 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 4, 2017 | OT | 03:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |