Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Johnson 45.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.1%
Defensive zone
Johnson 55.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
O'Reilly
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
O'Reilly
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
O'Reilly
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
44.6% (285)
+10.4%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
46.7% (60)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
16.7% (6)
+23.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnson
Home
54.8% (759)
50.8% (179)
Away
53.0% (777)
37.8% (172)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnson
P1
55.3%
41.3%
P2
51.9%
41.8%
P3
54.2%
49.6%
OT
64.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |