Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Johnson 50.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 57.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 89.3%
89.3%
10.7%
O'Reilly
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
O'Reilly
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
47.4% (78)
+8.7%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
57.6% (33)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
100.0% (2)
-54.1%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +54.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnson is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnson
Home
58.3% (408)
50.9% (57)
Away
53.6% (487)
51.8% (56)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnson
P1
57.7%
44.1%
P2
54.8%
59.4%
P3
55.2%
52.3%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |