Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.2% vs Johnson 48.7% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-6 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 96.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 94.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 89.7%
89.7%
10.3%
O'Reilly
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
6
(24 meetings)
18
6
O'Reilly
Johnson
Last 10: O'Reilly 8-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
2
O'Reilly
Johnson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
0
O'Reilly
Johnson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
3
4
O'Reilly
Johnson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (1,203)
48.5% (776)
+8.4%
Power Play
60.2% (329)
56.7% (157)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (280)
26.4% (53)
+24.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnson is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnson
Home
58.6% (879)
48.8% (482)
Away
54.6% (933)
48.4% (504)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnson
P1
55.6%
50.3%
P2
57.9%
48.5%
P3
55.7%
47.0%
OT
62.5%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 05:55 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |