Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Jost 40.5% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 23-7 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 98.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 96.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 97.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 97.4%
97.4%
2.6%
O'Reilly
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
7
(30 meetings)
23
7
O'Reilly
Jost
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
1
O'Reilly
Jost
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
2
O'Reilly
Jost
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
4
O'Reilly
Jost
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
41.0% (2,014)
+15.2%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
34.2% (73)
+24.6%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
35.3% (255)
+16.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Jost is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,466).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Jost
Home
57.6% (10,762)
41.9% (1,238)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
38.1% (1,104)
By Period
O'Reilly
Jost
P1
55.6%
38.5%
P2
57.0%
41.2%
P3
55.1%
40.9%
OT
62.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 09:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |