Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Jost 40.8% (+17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 72.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
O'Reilly
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
O'Reilly
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Jost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
O'Reilly
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
41.8% (388)
+14.3%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
0.0% (3)
+64.6%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
21.7% (60)
+24.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +64.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Jost is 38.5% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Jost
Home
58.3% (408)
42.6% (230)
Away
53.6% (487)
34.8% (221)
By Period
O'Reilly
Jost
P1
57.7%
43.2%
P2
54.8%
38.2%
P3
55.2%
34.6%
OT
45.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
38.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |