Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Jost 47.3% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 54.7%
Defensive zone
Jost 52.0%
Neutral zone
Jost 58.5%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
O'Reilly
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
O'Reilly
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
O'Reilly
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
45.7% (116)
+10.5%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
37.5% (8)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
50.0% (2)
+2.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Jost is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Jost
Home
56.2% (697)
39.7% (68)
Away
55.1% (642)
51.7% (58)
By Period
O'Reilly
Jost
P1
54.5%
40.5%
P2
55.5%
47.9%
P3
57.1%
47.2%
Final 5 min
56.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |