Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Johnston 50.1% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 63.2%
Defensive zone
Johnston 80.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 58.6%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
O'Reilly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
O'Reilly
Johnston
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
5
O'Reilly
Johnston
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
O'Reilly
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
50.7% (552)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
61.5% (13)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
43.5% (69)
-3.2%
On power play, Johnston has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnston
Home
54.8% (759)
50.3% (342)
Away
53.0% (777)
50.0% (292)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnston
P1
55.3%
54.4%
P2
51.9%
47.2%
P3
54.2%
49.4%
OT
64.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |