Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Johnston 51.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 53.2%
Defensive zone
Johnston 84.1%
Neutral zone
Johnston 67.7%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
O'Reilly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
O'Reilly
Johnston
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
7
O'Reilly
Johnston
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
3
O'Reilly
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
52.6% (696)
+3.6%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
52.3% (88)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
42.4% (125)
+9.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Johnston
Home
56.2% (697)
52.8% (458)
Away
55.1% (642)
49.4% (451)
By Period
O'Reilly
Johnston
P1
54.5%
48.9%
P2
55.5%
52.3%
P3
57.1%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 00:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 08:15 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |