Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Trenin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Trenin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Trenin 46.6% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.0%
Defensive zone
Trenin 80.5%
Neutral zone
Trenin 55.7%
Result
Yakov Trenin favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
O'Reilly
Trenin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
O'Reilly
Trenin
Last 7: O'Reilly 3-4 Trenin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Trenin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trenin
0
4
O'Reilly
Trenin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Trenin
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
46.5% (144)
+8.5%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
50.0% (2)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
41.9% (74)
-1.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trenin shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Trenin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Trenin
Home
54.8% (759)
45.7% (129)
Away
53.0% (777)
44.0% (91)
By Period
O'Reilly
Trenin
P1
55.3%
47.5%
P2
51.9%
52.6%
P3
54.2%
32.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Trenin
42.0%▲
40.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |