Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Poehling wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 47.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 65.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 57.2%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Poehling
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Poehling
Monahan
Last 5: Poehling 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Poehling
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
1
Poehling
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (626)
53.2% (823)
-3.4%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
55.3% (159)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (207)
48.4% (95)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Poehling shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Poehling
Monahan
Home
47.3% (404)
54.6% (529)
Away
46.9% (441)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Poehling
Monahan
P1
53.5%
49.0%
P2
39.4%
55.4%
P3
49.1%
53.6%
OT
35.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
51.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |