Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 48.1% vs Novak 43.3% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 85.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 71.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Poehling
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Poehling
Novak
Last 10: Poehling 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
6
Poehling
Novak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
4
1
Poehling
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
1
Poehling
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (2,726)
42.1% (1,539)
+7.3%
Power Play
51.6% (93)
51.9% (133)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (623)
50.0% (2)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Poehling shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Poehling
Novak
Home
49.3% (1,688)
45.3% (814)
Away
46.9% (1,754)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Poehling
Novak
P1
50.9%
43.9%
P2
47.0%
42.8%
P3
46.9%
41.7%
OT
37.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |