Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +16.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Poehling wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 47.4% vs Zegras 35.4% (+16.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 65.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 98.6%
Neutral zone
Poehling 96.1%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 97.2%
97.2%
2.8%
Poehling
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Poehling
Zegras
Last 7: Poehling 7-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
0
Poehling
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
4
0
Poehling
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (626)
29.6% (230)
+20.2%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
32.1% (56)
+26.2%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (207)
100.0% (1)
-61.8%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +61.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Poehling shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Poehling
Zegras
Home
47.3% (404)
30.6% (147)
Away
46.9% (441)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Poehling
Zegras
P1
53.5%
33.0%
P2
39.4%
31.7%
P3
49.1%
25.6%
OT
35.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 02:51 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |