Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Carrick 49.5% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 88.2%
Defensive zone
Barkov 56.5%
Neutral zone
Barkov 71.3%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Barkov
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Barkov
Carrick
Last 6: Barkov 5-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
0
Barkov
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
48.9% (352)
+8.1%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
81.3% (16)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
42.2% (45)
+6.1%
On power play, Carrick has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Barkov is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Barkov shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Barkov
Carrick
Home
59.2% (557)
46.9% (192)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Barkov
Carrick
P1
56.7%
48.1%
P2
54.8%
50.0%
P3
59.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 04:38 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |