Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 40.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Carrick 53.7% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 91.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 55.7%
Neutral zone
Malkin 70.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Malkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Malkin
Carrick
Last 7: Malkin 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
1
Malkin
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Malkin
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Malkin
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
53.8% (654)
-8.3%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
63.9% (36)
+36.1%
On power play, Malkin has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Malkin is 40.1% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Malkin shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Malkin
Carrick
Home
47.5% (326)
50.0% (328)
Away
44.0% (307)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Malkin
Carrick
P1
49.3%
56.7%
P2
44.7%
51.1%
P3
42.3%
54.8%
Final 5 min
49.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |