Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.2%). Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Carrick 53.7% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 54.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 58.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Staal
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Staal
Carrick
Last 7: Staal 6-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
53.8% (654)
+3.2%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
0.0% (2)
+57.7%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
63.9% (36)
-18.8%
On power play, Staal has a +57.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Staal
Carrick
Home
54.3% (667)
50.0% (328)
Away
54.7% (662)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Staal
Carrick
P1
56.2%
56.7%
P2
57.0%
51.1%
P3
49.7%
54.8%
Final 5 min
48.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |