Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Kolesar wins 43.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.8% vs Carrick 49.5% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 66.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 70.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.1%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Kolesar
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Kolesar
Carrick
Last 8: Kolesar 4-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Kolesar
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
4
2
Kolesar
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (170)
48.9% (352)
-8.3%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
81.3% (16)
-31.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (12)
42.2% (45)
-8.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kolesar is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Kolesar shoots right. Carrick is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Carrick
Home
38.0% (92)
46.9% (192)
Away
42.7% (96)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Kolesar
Carrick
P1
41.0%
48.1%
P2
41.9%
50.0%
P3
37.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.5%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
40.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 03:49 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |