Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Carrick 53.0% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 69.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 72.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 50.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Kastelic
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Kastelic
Carrick
Last 7: Kastelic 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Kastelic
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Kastelic
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Kastelic
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
53.9% (521)
-0.5%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
57.1% (35)
+42.9%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
51.5% (229)
+23.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kastelic is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Kastelic shoots right. Carrick is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carrick
Home
56.2% (162)
52.7% (408)
Away
52.9% (187)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Kastelic
Carrick
P1
58.2%
51.4%
P2
58.8%
56.6%
P3
45.4%
52.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |