Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.8% vs Monahan 52.8% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 74.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Carrick
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carrick
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Carrick
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (439)
53.2% (823)
+1.9%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
55.3% (159)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (53)
48.4% (95)
+0.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Carrick shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Carrick
Monahan
Home
58.2% (225)
54.6% (529)
Away
51.5% (270)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Carrick
Monahan
P1
56.7%
49.0%
P2
52.8%
55.4%
P3
54.4%
53.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |