Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.3%). Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.1% vs Monahan 51.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 82.4%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Carrick
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carrick
Monahan
Last 8: Carrick 2-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Carrick
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
1
Carrick
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Carrick
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (2,513)
51.1% (11,356)
+1.0%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
53.7% (2,580)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (430)
46.0% (766)
+4.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Carrick shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Carrick
Monahan
Home
51.2% (1,441)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Carrick
Monahan
P1
51.8%
50.9%
P2
52.2%
51.7%
P3
52.4%
51.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |