Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.7% vs Aho 54.9% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 88.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 83.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 52.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Carrick
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carrick
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (654)
54.5% (870)
-0.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
62.4% (266)
-62.4%
Penalty Kill
63.9% (36)
37.1% (62)
+26.8%
On power play, Aho has a +62.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Carrick shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Carrick
Aho
Home
50.0% (328)
53.9% (603)
Away
58.0% (364)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Carrick
Aho
P1
56.7%
54.1%
P2
51.1%
55.0%
P3
54.8%
57.4%
Final 5 min
48.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |