Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.1% vs Aho 51.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 85.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 80.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Carrick
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Carrick
Aho
Last 10: Carrick 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
7
Carrick
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
4
1
Carrick
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (2,513)
50.1% (6,619)
+2.0%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
58.9% (1,310)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (430)
46.3% (464)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Carrick shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Carrick
Aho
Home
51.2% (1,441)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Carrick
Aho
P1
51.8%
51.1%
P2
52.2%
52.0%
P3
52.4%
50.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 11:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |